How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Glentoran to win 38%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Glentoran host Coleraine at home in the NIFL Premiership on 15 September 2026. Glentoran sit eighth out of twelve, seven points from six games and just inside the relegation places. They are two points behind Crusaders and three points ahead of Ballymena United. Coleraine sit top of the table with sixteen points from six games and a healthy plus eleven goal difference. They are one point clear of Linfield. Both sides have a lot to play for – Glentoran need points to climb out of danger while Coleraine want to keep their lead intact.
Glentoran have not won any of their last three matches. Their most recent game was a 1-1 draw with Bangor at home. Before that they lost 2-1 away to Larne and earlier drew 2-2 away at Gzira United. In those three games they have scored four goals and let in five. Two of the matches produced three or more goals and both sides found the net in each of those games. The short three-day turnaround from the Bangor draw means they will be coming into this fixture with limited rest.
Coleraine have been in fine form. Their recent results have been strong, keeping them on top of the league. Their latest outing was a convincing win that pushed their goal tally higher and reinforced their position as leaders. The win also showed they can score and keep clean sheets, which is why they sit with a plus eleven goal difference after six games.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to be open with goals on both sides. Given the recent scores for each side – Glentoran’s four for and five against, and Coleraine’s solid attacking output – we expect another match with chances for both teams. The numbers suggest a total of just under three goals, so a modest scoring game is likely.
We pick Glentoran to win. The numbers give Glentoran an edge, with an expected 1.5 goals compared with Coleraine’s 1.3. The chance of Glentoran scoring at all is 76 % and they have a 43 % chance of scoring twice or more. Our chance of the pick working is 38 %. The price of 2.75 sits close to our own reading of the game, so it looks good. For the pick to go wrong, Coleraine would need to dominate early and keep a clean sheet, or Glentoran would have to miss the few chances they are likely to create. If either of those happens, the result could swing the other way.
Recent results
Glentoran have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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