How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Cerro Porteño to win 39%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Cerro Porteño and 0.9 from Nacional, so Cerro Porteño come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Nacional come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Cerro Porteño to win. Cerro Porteño are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-0.9), and we make them about 41% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.40, which works out at about 42 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
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