How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Guaraní to win 49%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Guaraní and 1.2 from Recoleta, so Guaraní come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Guaraní to win. Guaraní are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.2), and we make them about 51% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 49 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.99, which works out at about 50 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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