What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Luqueño and 1.2 from Sportivo Ameliano, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Sportivo Ameliano to win. Sportivo Ameliano shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.2), and we make them about 37% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 35 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.50, which works out at about 40 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Luqueño a draw or better. The price is shorter than our own read of about 37%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
