What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Sportivo Trinidense and 1.2 from Olimpia, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Sportivo Trinidense to win. Sportivo Trinidense are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.2), and we make them about 35% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 34 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.25, which works out at about 31 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Olimpia only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 35%.
