What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Libertad and 0.7 from Rubio Ñú, so Libertad come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Libertad to win. Libertad are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.7), and we make them about 63% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.64, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Rubio Ñú to spoil this. At around 63% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
