How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made 2 de Mayo to win 51%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.7 goals from Sportivo San Lorenzo and 1.3 from 2 de Mayo, so 2 de Mayo come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
2 de Mayo come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: 2 de Mayo to win. 2 de Mayo shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.7-1.3), and we make them about 52% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
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