What to expect
We expect about 0.7 goals from Sportivo San Lorenzo and 1.3 from 2 de Mayo, so 2 de Mayo come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Sportivo San Lorenzo come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: 2 de Mayo to win. 2 de Mayo shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.7-1.3), and we make them about 52% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.20, which works out at about 45 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Sportivo San Lorenzo to spoil this. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 52%.
