How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Sporting Cristal or Draw 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Sporting Cristal host Alianza Lima at home in the Peru Liga 1 on 29 October 2026. Cristal sit fourth in the 18-team table with 25 points from 13 games and a +11 goal difference. Just above them sits Deportivo Garcilaso, while FBC Melgar sit just below, all on the same points. Alianza Lima are seventh, also on 25 points, with a +8 goal difference, level with ADC Juan Pablo II above and Alianza Atlético below. Both clubs are locked together on points, so a win could move Cristal into the European-play spots and push Lima closer to the top half.
Cristal’s form over the last eight matches has been strong overall. They lost 3-1 away to Cusco FC, then bounced back with a 4-2 home win over Comerciantes Unidos. A 1-0 away victory at CD UT Cajamarca followed, and they beat Atlético Grau 3-1 at home. The run continued with a 2-1 away win at Club Deportivo Moquegua and a 5-0 home thrashing of Los Chankas. In those eight games Cristal have scored 17 and let in 11, keeping two clean sheets and failing to find the net only once. Their last three home fixtures have all been wins, showing they are comfortable in front of their own fans.
Alianza Lima arrive on the back of four straight victories. Their recent eight-game stretch includes a 1-0 away win at Club Deportivo Moquegua, a 3-1 home triumph over Atlético Grau, a 2-1 away success at Cusco FC and a 2-0 home win over Asociación Deportiva Tarma. Before that they fell 2-1 at home to Universitario de Deportes and drew 1-1 away at ADC Juan Pablo II. In those eight games Lima have scored 11 and conceded 7, with two clean sheets and one goalless effort. Their last outing was just four days ago, a 1-0 away win over Moquegua, meaning they are coming in on a short turnaround but with confidence from the recent run.
The two sides have met five times recently, producing four draws and a single win for Alianza Lima. Those games have been low-scoring, averaging 1.4 goals each, and the most recent encounter on 10 May 2026 ended 1-1. Given the tight history and the modest goal averages, we expect another close affair with few chances. Both teams have shown they can score but also keep things tight, so a single goal for each side or a narrow win for the home side fits the pattern.
We back Sporting Cristal or a draw at 1.38. The price is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, giving us a safety net if Cristal do not win outright. Cristal have the better scoring odds – 76 % chance to score and 39 % chance to hit twice – and they are unbeaten at home in their last three matches. A draw would still be a good result for them and fits the recent head-to-head record. The pick could go wrong if Lima’s four-game winning streak continues and they manage to break Cristal’s home dominance, or if a defensive lapse lets both sides score more than the expected 2.5 goals. Overall, the odds look attractive for a safe return.
Recent results
Alianza Lima have won one of the last five meetings, with four drawn.
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