How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Comerciantes Unidos or Draw 78%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Comerciantes Unidos and 1.3 from FC Cajamarca, so Comerciantes Unidos come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Comerciantes Unidos or Draw. This covers Comerciantes Unidos or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.15, which works out at about 87 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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