How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made FBC Melgar to win 72%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
FBC Melgar host Comerciantes Unidos at home in the Peru Liga 1 on 30 October 2026. Melgar sit fifth in the 18-team table with 25 points from 13 games and a +10 goal difference. One place above them is Sporting Cristal and one place below is ADC Juan Pablo II, both on the same points. Comerciantes Unidos are down in 13th place with 13 points, a –1 goal difference. Cienciano sit just above them on four points more, while Los Chankas are one spot below. Both clubs are looking to move up the table, but Melgar have more to lose if they slip.
Melgar come into this match on the back of two straight wins. In their last eight games they have won four, drawn three and lost one. The most recent results are a 2-1 away win over CD UT Cajamarca, a 4-2 home victory against Deportivo Garcilaso, a 2-2 draw away to Universitario de Deportes, a 1-1 home draw with Sport Boys, a 1-0 away win over Cusco FC and a 3-0 home win over Asociación Deportiva Tarma. In those eight games they have scored 14 and let in eight, kept two clean sheets and failed to score only once. At home in the last four matches they have won two and drawn two, never losing.
Comerciantes Unidos have had a tougher run. In their last eight games they have won two, drawn two and lost four. Their most recent fixtures are a 3-1 home win over Cienciano, a 4-2 away loss to Sporting Cristal, a 1-1 home draw with ADC Juan Pablo II, a 2-1 away defeat to Alianza Atlético, a 1-0 home loss to Sport Huancayo and a 2-2 away draw with Universitario de Deportes. Over those eight games they have scored 14 and conceded 15, have failed to find the net only once and have been involved in six games with three or more goals. Their last four road games gave them one win, one draw and two defeats.
The two sides have met five times before. Melgar have won once, Comerciantes Unidos have not won, and four matches ended in draws. Those games produced an average of 1.8 goals. The most recent encounter was a 1-1 draw on 10 May 2026. Given the low scoring history, we can expect a game with chances for both sides but not a flood of goals. Melgar’s stronger recent form and better home record suggest they will have the edge, while Comerciantes Unidos are likely to look for at least a point.
We pick Melgar to win. The numbers give them about 2.3 goals to the visitors’ 0.8 and a 72 per cent chance of success. The price on offer is 1.27, which is shorter than our reading of the game, so it looks attractive. For this to go wrong Melgar would need to be shut out and the visitors to score twice, which is unlikely given the low chance of Comerciantes Unidos scoring more than once. All signs point to a home win for Melgar.
Recent results
FBC Melgar have won one of the last five meetings, with four drawn.
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