What to expect
We expect about 2.0 goals from Liverpool and 1.2 from Fulham, so Liverpool come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.1 goals between the two (xG 2.0-1.2), landing about 62% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.49, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
An early goal can kill the tempo just as easily as spark it, and a quiet second half leaves this short. The price is shorter than our own read of about 62%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
