How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Chelsea to score 2 or fewer 81%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Brentford and 1.5 from Chelsea, so Brentford come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Chelsea to score 2 or fewer. This is about Chelsea's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.5 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 81%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Chelsea have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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