How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Aston Villa to score 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Tottenham host Aston Villa at home in a Premier League clash on 19 September 2026. Tottenham sit 17th with two points from four games and a –5 goal difference, just one point ahead of Crystal Palace and one behind Fulham. Villa are 19th, also with one point from four, sitting in the relegation zone with a –6 goal difference, level on points with Fulham above them and a point clear of Coventry City below. Both clubs are fighting to climb out of the bottom three, and a win for either side would move them a step up the table while pushing the other further toward danger.
Tottenham’s recent form has been poor. In their last eight matches they have recorded one win, three draws and four defeats. The most recent results are a 3-1 loss away to Liverpool, a goalless draw with Everton at home, another 0-0 draw away at Nottingham Forest, a 2-0 defeat at home to Newcastle, a 3-0 loss away to Brentford and a 1-0 home win over Everton. They have not won in five games and have scored only four goals while conceding eleven in that stretch. At home they have one win, two draws and one loss in the last four fixtures, keeping three clean sheets but failing to score in four games.
Villa have been a little brighter on the road. In their last eight outings they have won four, drawn one and lost three. Their latest results are a 3-1 away win at Coventry City, a 2-1 home loss to Nottingham Forest, two consecutive 3-2 away victories over Club Brugge, a 0-0 draw away at Hull and a 1-0 home defeat to Arsenal. In their six most recent away games they have four wins, one draw and one loss. They have scored twelve and let in thirteen in the eight-game run, keeping only one clean sheet and being shut out three times. The most recent match saw them lose 2-1 at home to Arsenal.
In the five most recent meetings between the two sides Tottenham have edged ahead with three wins to Villa’s two, and the games have been high-scoring, averaging 3.4 goals. The latest encounter was a 2-1 victory for Tottenham at Villa on 3 May 2026. Given the similar goal expectations for both clubs – 1.3 for Tottenham and 1.4 for Villa – we can expect another open contest with chances for both sides to find the net.
We back Villa to score. The chance of Villa scoring at all is 77 out of 100 and our own view puts the likelihood at 76 out of 100. The price of 1.37 is longer than we think the game will be, making it attractive. Villa have shown they can score on the road, and even if they do not win, a goal would be enough for our pick. The bet would fail only if Villa are shut out, which would require a very tight defensive display from Tottenham that their recent record does not suggest.
Recent results
Tottenham have won three of the last five meetings.
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