How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Everton to win 62%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Everton and 1.1 from Ipswich, so Everton come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Everton to win. Everton are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-1.1), and we make them about 63% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.85, which works out at about 54 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Everton have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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