What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Brighton and 1.5 from Arsenal, so Arsenal come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.0-1.5), and we make both teams to score about 53%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.77, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Brighton have won two of their last five.
✓Arsenal have won two of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
4 Mar 2026Brighton 0 - 1 Arsenal
27 Dec 2025Arsenal 2 - 1 Brighton
4 Jan 2025Brighton 1 - 1 Arsenal
31 Aug 2024Arsenal 1 - 1 Brighton
6 Apr 2024Brighton 0 - 3 Arsenal
