Newcastle v Hull: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Newcastle to score 2 or fewer 78%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.2 goals from Newcastle and 1.2 from Hull, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Hull come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Newcastle to score 2 or fewer. This is about Newcastle's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.2 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 78%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.