How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Rio Ave to score 1 or fewer 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Alverca and 1.1 from Rio Ave, so Alverca come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Rio Ave to score 1 or fewer. This is about Rio Ave's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.1 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 73%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Alverca have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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