How it turned out
We projected about 3.8 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.8 goals from Sp Lisbon and 0.9 from Arouca, so Sp Lisbon come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.8 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Sp Lisbon to score 2+. This is about Sp Lisbon's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 2.8 on the day, and the bet needs them to score 2 or more, which we make about 74%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.26, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Sp Lisbon have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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