How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 4. We made Nacional to score 1 or fewer 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Nacional and 1.1 from Famalicao, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Nacional come into this on four straight defeats. Famalicao come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Nacional to score 1 or fewer. This is about Nacional's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 70%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Famalicao have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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