What to expect
We expect about 3.1 goals from Benfica and 0.9 from Estoril, so Benfica come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Benfica come into this on two straight wins. Estoril come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 4.0 goals between the two (xG 3.1-0.9), landing about 73% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
An early goal can kill the tempo just as easily as spark it, and a quiet second half leaves this short. We make it about 73% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
