How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Over 1.5 goals 63%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Casa Pia and 1.2 from Moreirense, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Casa Pia come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.3 goals (xG 1.2-1.2), and two is enough to land it, landing about 65% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.50, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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