What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Famalicao and 0.9 from Gil Vicente, so Famalicao come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Famalicao come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.1 goals in total (xG 1.2-0.9), keeping it under more often than not (about 63%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.63, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
One end-to-end spell, or a defensive mistake, and the goals can pile up before either side settles. We make it about 63% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
