What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Nacional and 1.0 from Estrela, so Nacional come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Correct score 1-0. This is our most likely exact scoreline for the game (xG 1.4-1.0). Correct score is a long shot by nature, so treat it as a small-stakes punt rather than a banker.
We put the chance of that landing at about 13 out of 100. The price on offer is 8.10, which works out at about 12 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Correct score is unforgiving: the right winner but the wrong number still loses. We make it about 13% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
