How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 71%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Nacional and 1.0 from Estrela, so Nacional come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Estrela come into this on four straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.5 goals in total (xG 1.5-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 74%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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