How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Sp Lisbon to win 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Casa Pia and 2.1 from Sp Lisbon, so Sp Lisbon come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Sp Lisbon to win. Sp Lisbon shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-2.1), and we make them about 75% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Sp Lisbon have won five of the last five meetings.
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