How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Moreirense to score 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Moreirense and 1.2 from Estrela, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Moreirense to score. This is about Moreirense's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.3 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 75%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 1-1, with three drawn.
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