How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 4. We made Porto to score 2+ 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Porto and 0.8 from Estoril, so Porto come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Porto come into this on five straight wins. Estoril come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Porto to score 2+. This is about Porto's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 2.1 on the day, and the bet needs them to score 2 or more, which we make about 68%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Porto have won four of the last five meetings.
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