Estoril v Arouca: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Both teams to score 55%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.6 goals from Estoril and 1.6 from Arouca, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Estoril come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.7-1.6), and we make both teams to score about 55%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.

We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.71, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.