How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Over 1.5 goals 67%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Guimaraes and 0.8 from Casa Pia, so Guimaraes come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Casa Pia come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.4 goals (xG 1.6-0.8), and two is enough to land it, landing about 69% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Casa Pia have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
