How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 4. We made Santa Clara (Draw No Bet) 66%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Santa Clara and 0.8 from Rio Ave, so Santa Clara come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Santa Clara (Draw No Bet). Santa Clara are favoured here (xG 1.4-0.8), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Santa Clara defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Rio Ave have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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