What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Santa Clara and 0.8 from Rio Ave, so Santa Clara come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Santa Clara (Draw No Bet). Santa Clara are favoured here (xG 1.4-0.8), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Santa Clara defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Rio Ave win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. We make it about 71% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
