What to expect
We expect about 2.0 goals from Estoril and 1.1 from Maritimo, so Estoril come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Estoril come into this on five straight defeats. Maritimo come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Estoril to win. Estoril are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.1), and we make them about 60% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.06, which works out at about 49 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Estoril have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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