What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Estrela and 2.2 from Benfica, so Benfica come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Estrela come into this on two straight defeats. Benfica come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Benfica to win. Benfica shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-2.2), and we make them about 74% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.21, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Benfica have won five of the last five meetings.
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