How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Not both teams to score 49%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Estrela host Famalicao at home in a Primeira Liga clash on 5 September 2026. Both clubs sit in the middle of the table with nothing dramatic at stake, but a point could move each a few places. The two sides are almost equal on the numbers we have – Estrela have scored 12 and let in 14 in their last eight games, while Famalicao have both scored and conceded six in the same span. The recent meetings have been tight, with three draws, a win for each side and an average of 1.6 goals per game.
Estrela’s recent form has been a mix of draws and a single win. Their last eight fixtures, newest first, are a 3-2 win away at Nacional, a 2-2 draw away to Alverca, a 2-2 draw at home to Sp Lisbon, a 2-2 draw away to Sp Braga, a 0-0 draw at home to Famalicao, and a 3-2 loss away to Moreirense. That run gives them one win, four draws and three defeats. They have not lost in their last five games, but at home they have only managed two draws and one loss in the past three matches. In those eight games they have kept just one clean sheet and have failed to find the net twice. Six of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in six of them.
Famalicao’s eight-game run shows two wins, four draws and two losses. Their latest results are a 0-0 draw at home with Gil Vicente, a 1-0 loss away to Santa Clara, a 2-1 defeat at home to Maritimo, a 1-1 draw away at Estoril, a 1-0 win at home over Alverca and a 0-0 draw away at Estrela. They have gone four games without a win, but on the road in the last four they have one win, two draws and one loss. Across the eight matches they have scored six and conceded six, kept four clean sheets and have been shut out three times. Only two of those games produced three or more goals, while both sides scored in three matches.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have been low-scoring and evenly balanced. In the last five meetings Estrela have one win, Famalicao one win and three draws, with an average of 1.6 goals per encounter. The most recent meeting ended in a 0-0 stalemate on 11 May 2026. Given the similar recent scoring records and the number of clean sheets each side has kept, we expect another quiet affair with few chances and a good chance that at least one team will fail to score.
Our pick is that both teams will not score. The price of 1.90 is shorter than what we feel the game warrants, so it looks attractive. We think a clean sheet for either side is likely, especially after the recent 0-0 draws. The pick has a 49 % chance of hitting. It would go wrong if the game opens up and both sides find the net, as has happened in six of Estrela’s recent games, but the overall trend points to a tight, low-key match.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 1-1, with three drawn.
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