How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Benfica to win 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Maritimo and 2.1 from Benfica, so Benfica come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Benfica come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Benfica to win. Benfica shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-2.1), and we make them about 72% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.26, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Benfica have won four of the last four meetings.
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