How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Alverca and 1.7 from Sp Braga, so Sp Braga come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.8 goals between the two (xG 1.1-1.7), landing about 73% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Sp Braga have won two of the last two meetings.
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