How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 4. We made Under 4.5 goals 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Moreirense and 2.2 from Benfica, so Benfica come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Benfica come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 3.1 goals (xG 0.8-2.2), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 75%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Benfica have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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