What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Moreirense and 2.2 from Benfica, so Benfica come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Benfica come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Benfica to win. Benfica shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-2.2), and we make them about 75% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.23, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Moreirense only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 75%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
