What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Nacional and 1.0 from Alverca, so Nacional come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.4 goals (xG 1.4-1.0), and two is enough to land it, landing about 71% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
