How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Nacional to score 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Nacional and 1.0 from Alverca, so Nacional come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Nacional come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Nacional to score. This is about Nacional's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.4 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 74%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last two meetings are split 1-1, with no drawn.
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