How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.5 goals from Casa Pia and 2.0 from Porto, so Porto come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Porto come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Porto to win. Porto shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.5-2.0), and we make them about 77% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Porto have won four of the last five meetings.
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