What to expect
Our pick: Sp Braga to win. Sp Braga shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.6), and we make them about 54% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.74, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Moreirense to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 54%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
