How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Santa Clara and 0.8 from Nacional, so Santa Clara come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. A clean sheet is on the cards in a quiet game (about 2.0 xG).
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.62, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A single defensive slip or a late set-piece, and the clean sheet this needs is gone. We make it about 62% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.