What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Rio Ave and 1.7 from Sp Braga, so Sp Braga come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Rio Ave come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Sp Braga to win. Sp Braga shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.7), and we make them about 57% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.55, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Sp Braga have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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