What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Atl. Tucuman and 1.1 from River Plate, so River Plate come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
River Plate come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.0 goals in total (xG 0.9-1.1), keeping it under more often than not (about 63%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
It only takes one early goal to change how both sides play, and a low total can unravel in a single quick spell. The price is shorter than our own read of about 63%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
