How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Banfield to score 1 or fewer 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Banfield and 0.9 from Barracas Central, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Banfield come into this on three straight defeats. Barracas Central come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Banfield to score 1 or fewer. This is about Banfield's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 70%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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