How it turned out
We projected about 1.6 goals; the game finished with 3. We made Not both teams to score 59%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Dep. Riestra and 0.7 from Lanus, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.6 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Dep. Riestra come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. This shapes up as a quiet, low-key game — around 1.6 goals between the two (xG 0.8-0.7). One side keeping it tight for a clean sheet is well on the cards.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.49, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Dep. Riestra have won three of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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