How it turned out
We projected about 1.8 goals; the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Not both teams to score 69%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Instituto host Estudiantes Rio Cuarto at home on 15 September in the Primera División. Instituto sit top of the table, first of fifteen with 19 points from nine games and a +4 goal difference. They are in the European places and only two points clear of second-placed Vélez Sarsfield. Estudiantes Rio Cuarto are down at 13th, with six points and a –7 goal difference, two points behind Banfield and one ahead of Aldosivi. Both teams will be keen to improve their positions, but the gap in the standings shows Instituto as the stronger side.
Instituto have been solid in their last eight matches, winning five, drawing one and losing two. The most recent results are a 3-2 loss away to Union de Santa Fe, a 1-0 home win over San Lorenzo, a 0-0 draw away at Atlético Tucumán, a 1-0 away win at Central Córdoba, a 1-0 home win over Gimnasia Mendoza and a 1-0 away win at Lanús. In those eight games they have scored eight goals and let in five. They kept five clean sheets and failed to find the net in two matches. Their three home games in the run have all been victories.
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto have struggled, managing just one win, three draws and four defeats in their last eight outings. Their recent form includes a 2-0 home loss to Sarmiento Junín, a 1-1 away draw with Huracán, a 0-0 home draw with San Lorenzo, a 1-0 home loss to Atlético Tucumán, a 2-1 away defeat to Independiente Rivadavia and a 0-0 home draw with Banfield. They have scored three goals while conceding nine in this period. The team have not won in seven games and have kept three clean sheets but have failed to score in five matches. Their last road game was a 2-1 loss at Independiente Rivadavia, a narrow defeat that showed they can keep the score low but struggle to find the net.
Our pick is that both teams will not score. The numbers point to a tight, low-scoring affair – we expect about 1.8 goals in total, with Instituto likely to score once and Estudiantes rarely finding the net. The price of 1.39 is shorter than our reading, which gives us a 69 % chance of success. For the bet to go wrong, Estudiantes would need to score and keep a clean sheet, or Instituto would have to concede while also scoring. If the game stays as tight as the recent form suggests, the not-both-teams-to-score option should hold.
Recent results
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