How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Over 1.5 goals 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Boca Juniors and 0.9 from Union de Santa Fe, so Boca Juniors come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Boca Juniors come into this on two straight wins. Union de Santa Fe come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.8 goals between the two (xG 1.9-0.9), landing about 70% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 1-1, with three drawn.
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