How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Newells Old Boys to score 1 or fewer 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Newells Old Boys and 1.1 from Lanus, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Lanus come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Newells Old Boys to score 1 or fewer. This is about Newells Old Boys's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 71%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Newells Old Boys have won three of the last five meetings.
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