How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Ind. Rivadavia and 1.1 from Gimnasia L.P., so Ind. Rivadavia come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Ind. Rivadavia come into this on two straight wins. Gimnasia L.P. come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.7 goals between the two (xG 1.6-1.1), landing about 71% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Ind. Rivadavia have won three of the last three meetings.
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