How it turned out
We projected about 1.8 goals; the game finished with 3. We made Not both teams to score 55%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Defensa y Justicia and 0.8 from San Lorenzo, so Defensa y Justicia come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.8 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. This shapes up as a quiet, low-key game — around 1.8 goals between the two (xG 1.0-0.8). One side keeping it tight for a clean sheet is well on the cards.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.63, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Defensa y Justicia have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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