What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Dep. Riestra and 0.7 from Lanus, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.6 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 1.6 goals in total (xG 0.9-0.7), keeping it under more often than not (about 66%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
It only takes one early goal to change how both sides play, and a low total can unravel in a single quick spell. The price is shorter than our own read of about 66%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
