How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Independiente to score 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Independiente host Instituto on 2 October in the Primera División. Independiente sit sixth of fifteen with 17 points from ten games and a +2 goal difference. Instituto sit top of the table with 22 points and a +6 goal difference. The gap between them is five points, and a win for either side could tighten the race at the top. The numbers show Independiente as the stronger side in scoring, but both clubs have been tight in recent matches, so we expect a close, low-scoring affair.
Independiente have been inconsistent in their last eight games, winning three, drawing two and losing three. Their most recent results were a 2-1 win away at Union de Santa Fe, a 1-1 home draw with San Lorenzo, a 1-0 away win over Central Córdoba, a 3-0 home loss to Gimnasia Mendoza, a 0-0 home draw with Independiente Rivadavia and a 3-1 away win at Lanús. In those eight matches they have scored seven goals and let in eight. They kept two clean sheets but failed to find the net in four games. Their last three outings have all been unbeaten, but at home they have not won in the last four games, managing two draws and two defeats.
Instituto come into the game on the back of two straight victories. In their last eight fixtures they have won six, drawn one and lost one. The recent scores are a 3-1 home win over Talleres Córdoba, a 2-1 home win against Estudiantes Río Cuarto, a 3-2 away loss to Union de Santa Fe, a 1-0 home win over San Lorenzo, a 0-0 away draw with Atlético Tucumán and a 1-0 away win at Central Córdoba. Across those eight games Instituto have scored eleven goals and conceded five, keeping five clean sheets and being shut out only once. Their last road trip saw two wins, a draw and a loss, and they played their most recent match twelve days ago.
The two clubs have met five times before. Independiente have won two of those meetings, Instituto have won two and one ended in a draw. The games have averaged 2.2 goals, and the most recent encounter on 17 March saw Instituto beat Independiente 2-1. Given the recent form and the low-scoring nature of their past clashes, we expect another tight contest with few chances on either side.
Our pick is Independiente to score. The chance of them finding the net is about 74 per cent, and we rate the likelihood of our pick succeeding at 70 per cent. The price on offer is 1.36, which is shorter than our own reading of the game, so it looks attractive. For the bet to fail Independiente would have to be shut out, which would require a very defensive display from Instituto and a lack of quality in front of goal. If the match stays as tight as the numbers suggest, we think Independiente will at least get one goal.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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